Food Price Outlook, 2025
This page summarizes the February 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the January 2025 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.7 percent from December 2024 to January 2025 and was up 3.0 percent from January 2024. The CPI for all food increased 0.6 percent from December 2024 to January 2025, and food prices were 2.5 percent higher than in January 2024.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.8 percent from December 2024 to January 2025 and was 1.9 percent higher than January 2024; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.2 percent in January 2025 and was 3.4 percent higher than January 2024.
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise slightly faster than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 5.9 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 3.3 percent, with a prediction interval of -0.2 to 7.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.1 to 4.7 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the conflict in Ukraine, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food price growth continued to slow in 2024, rising by 2.3 percent, as those factors combined with cooling labor pressures, lower energy prices, and changes in consumer demand. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024, lower than their historical average pace of growth, and food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent, slightly outpacing their historical average.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
Overall, prices for food-at-home rose by 0.8 percent between December 2024 and January 2025. This was partially an effect of seasonal trends, since prices typically increase in January following the holiday season. From December 2024 to January 2025, prices increased for 11 food-at-home categories and declined for 4 categories. In 2025, prices are predicted to grow at above-average rates for eggs, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and fresh fruits, while dairy products are expected to grow at near-average rates. Prices for 10 other food-at-home categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Beef and veal prices increased by 0.3 percent in January 2025 and were 5.5 percent higher than in January 2024. Beef and veal price increases are expected to moderate compared to 2024, but prices are predicted to continue to increase in 2025 due to tight supplies and continued demand. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 3.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.6 to 11.8 percent.
Pork prices rose by 0.7 percent in January 2025, after declining the prior 3 months largely due to seasonal trends, and were 2.8 percent higher than January 2024. Pork prices are predicted to increase 1.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -5.7 to 8.5 percent.
In January 2025, prices for poultry decreased by 0.3 percent and were 0.4 percent higher than January 2024. Poultry prices have declined in 4 of the past 5 months on strong production, but the ongoing HPAI outbreak could affect poultry production and prices in 2025. Poultry prices are predicted to experience no change on average in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.7 to 5.0 percent.
Retail egg prices increased by 13.8 percent in January 2025 after rising by 8.4 percent in December 2024. Retail egg prices continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. About 18.8 million commercial egg layers were affected by HPAI in January 2025, the highest monthly total since the outbreak began in 2022. Egg prices in January 2025 were 53.0 percent higher than in January 2024 and surpassed the previous peak prices in January 2023. Egg prices are predicted to increase 41.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 15.0 to 74.9 percent.
Fresh fruit prices rose by 1.9 percent in January 2025 after falling 2.1 percent in December 2024, both partially due to seasonal trends. Fresh fruit prices were 1.4 percent higher than January 2024, slowed by low price growth for bananas and citrus fruits. Prices for fresh fruits are predicted to increase by 2.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -2.9 to 8.1 percent.
Prices also increased by more than 1.0 percent in January 2025 for sugar and sweets (by 2.2 percent), nonalcoholic beverages (by 2.2 percent), processed fruits and vegetables (by 1.1 percent), and fats and oils (by 1.1 percent). Prices for sugar and sweets and nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to grow the fastest behind eggs, while prices for processed fruits and vegetables and fats and oils are still forecast to grow more slowly than their historical averages. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 6.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 2.9 to 10.1 percent. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 4.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.0 to 7.9 percent. Prices for processed fruits and vegetables are predicted to increase by 1.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -3.3 to 5.7 percent. Prices for fats and oils are predicted to increase by 0.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.4 to 5.9 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2025, prices are predicted to increase for six PPI categories and decrease for seven categories. Greater volatility in farm-level and wholesale-level prices leads to wider prediction intervals for these products compared with retail-level products.
Farm-level cattle and wholesale beef prices increased by 5.2 and 4.9 percent, respectively, in January 2025 compared with December 2024. Prices for farm-level cattle were 20.6 percent higher in January 2025 than January 2024, while prices for wholesale beef were 14.8 percent higher. Cattle and beef prices have risen as a result of tight cattle supplies from a cyclical contraction of the cattle herd, as well as a temporary import ban on cattle from Mexico between November 2024 and February 2025 following detections of New World screwworm. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase 6.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -7.0 to 24.0 percent. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase 4.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -11.3 to 24.4 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs rose by 31.4 percent between December 2024 and January 2025. The PPI for farm-level eggs captures the prices paid to producers for their products; these products are bought and sold earlier in the food supply chain and are more volatile than prices paid by consumers in retail stores. Farm-level egg prices continued to experience large monthly changes as the ongoing HPAI outbreak continued to affect egg-layer flocks. In January 2025, prices for farm-level eggs were 183.7 percent higher than January 2024 and surpassed the previous peak prices recorded in December 2022. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 82.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.1 to 293.1 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Prices for farm-level milk fell by 4.9 percent in January 2025, the fourth straight month of decreases, although prices were 10.2 percent higher than January 2024 due to price increases earlier in 2024. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to decrease by 3.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -26.0 to 28.6 percent.
In January 2025, prices for farm-level fruits fell by 13.7 percent and were 2.4 percent lower than January 2024, and prices for farm-level vegetables declined 22.3 percent and were 14.0 percent below January 2024. Farm-level fruit and vegetable prices can undergo large month-to-month swings based on weather, production, and seasonality. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to increase by 11.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.9 to 31.5 percent. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to decrease by 8.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -27.8 to 16.4 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.