Market Outlook

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U.S. 2024/25 Sugar Supply Increased; Mexico’s 2024/25 Sugar Exports to United States Raised

In the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24 ending stocks are reduced by 63,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) due to a back year downward revision of beet sugar production in the USDA, Farm Service Agency Sweetener Market Data (SMD) report. In addition, sugar imports are adjusted upwards by 46,000 STRV to 3.811 million due to a recent revision to the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service’s re-export program imports by the same amount. Correspondingly, the larger imports in the WASDE balance sheet flowed through non-reporter deliveries, thereby raising sugar deliveries for human consumption by 46,000 STRV to 12.4 million. Due to publication timing, the differences between the WASDE and the two data sources will be addressed in January 2025.

The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is raised from last month by 231,000 STRV to 14.251 million as the larger imports offset lower beginning stocks and reduced beet sugar production. With use unchanged at 12.555 million STRV, imports from Mexico are expected to be 621,000 STRV, a 226,000-STRV increase from the September U.S. Needs calculation, to achieve a 13.5-percent stocks-to-use ratio as stipulated in the U.S.-Mexico suspension agreements administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Mexico’s 2024/25 balance sheet is unchanged, including exports, as the increase in sugar destined to the United States is offset by an equal decrease to other countries such that a 2.5 months-worth target for ending stocks is achieved.