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U.S. 2024/25 Sugar Supply Raised; Mexico’s 2024/25 Sugar Balance Sheet Mostly Unchanged
In the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is raised from last month by 243,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.494 million on increases in beginning stocks, beet sugar production, and imports. Beginning stocks are increased by 24,000 based on the finalized 2023/24 USDA, Farm Service Agency’s Sweetener Market Data (SMD) report. Beet sugar production is raised mainly on higher sucrose recovery by 178,000 STRV to 5.338 million, a new record but lower than the beet processors’ forecast in the SMD of 5.597 million. High-tier duty sugar imports are raised by 40,000 STRV based on larger-than-expected volume of raw and refined sugar that entered between October 2024 and the first week of January 2025. Refiners’ imports of the sugar-equivalent of molasses are maintained at 55,000 STRV. With the 2024/25 sugar use unchanged at 12.555 million STRV, ending stocks are raised by 243,000 STRV to 1.939 million STRV. The corresponding ending stocks-to-use ratio is 15.4 percent, up by about 2 percentage points.
Mexico’s 2024/25 balance sheet is unchanged except for a 9,000-metric ton, actual weight (MT) increase in imports based on expected entries of sugar contracted in 2023/24. To maintain a 2.5 months-worth target for ending stocks, exports of sugar outside of the U.S.-Mexico suspension agreements are raised by the same volume to 484,000 MT; exports to the United States are unchanged at 531,000 MT.