Market Outlook

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U.S. 2024/25 Sugar Supply Increased; Mexico’s 2023/24 Sugar Imports Raised

In the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply is lowered from last month by 47,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.894 million as the lower early season production offsets the increase in imports. Since sugar use is unchanged at 12.663 million STRV, ending stocks are similarly reduced by 47,000 STRV to 2.231 million STRV, which reflects a stocks-to-use ratio of 17.6 percent, down 0.4 percentage points but remains the highest since 2012/13.

The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is increased by 12,000 STRV to 14.293 million as the larger production and imports compensate the decrease in beginning stocks. Despite the increase, total imports are forecast to be the lowest since 2007/08. Imports from Mexico are unchanged at 395,000 STRV, the lowest in 18 years, because of the relatively large U.S. beginning stocks, record-high outlook for domestic production, and flat deliveries. With sugar use unchanged at 12.505 million STRV, ending stocks are residually calculated at 1.788 million. This translates to a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3 percent, up 0.1 percentage points.

On October 14, Mexico’s National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane (CONADESUCA) released the final 2023/24 balance that is relatively close to the WASDE: record-high imports for consumption, negligible exports to countries other than the United States, and an 11-year high carryover inventory into 2024/25. The other notable change in 2024/25 was a reduction in deliveries to the Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación (IMMEX) program per the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Post in Mexico City.