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U.S. 2024/25 Sugar Supply and Use Are Lowered; Mexico’s 2024/25 Sugar Exports to the United States Are Reduced
In the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is lowered from last month by 76,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.317 million, as the increase in domestic sugar production is offset by the decrease in imports from Mexico. Sugar use for human consumption is lowered by 35,000 STRV to 12.240 million on a slower-thanexpected pace of deliveries. Total sugar use is reduced by the same magnitude to 12.445 million. Thus, ending stocks are down 41,000 STRV to 1.872 million and the corresponding ending stocks-to-use ratio is 15 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points but higher than the expected 13.5 percent. This reduction is because, per the suspension agreements, the Export Limit in March which the U.S. Department of Commerce sets at 100 percent of U.S. Needs to achieve a 13.5 percent stocks-to-use ratio (305,075 STRV) cannot be lower than the Export Limit previously established in December, which was 80 percent of U.S. Needs at that time (620,925 STRV x 80 percent = 496,740 STRV). Thus, the latter's higher volume is reflected in the WASDE.
Mexico’s 2024/25 sugar exports to the United States are correspondingly reduced to 425,000 metric tons (MT), actual weight. Sugar production is unchanged at 4.859 million MT. Total imports are increased, while deliveries for consumption are lowered—both based on pace. The net effect is increased exports to other countries to maintain ending stocks that are about 2.5 months-worth of domestic deliveries.