See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks for MY 2024/25 Decline on Lower Production
This month, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published the Crop Production— 2024 Summary report, which reduced the 2024 U.S. soybean production estimate by 95 million bushels to 4.36 billion bushels on lower yield and lower harvested acreage. The national average soybean yield declined by 1.0 bushel per acre to 50.7 bushels per acre. The harvested acreage was reduced by 0.2 million acres to 86.1 million acres. The U.S. soybean export and crush forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is unchanged this month and stands at 1.83 billion bushels and 2.41 billion bushels, respectively. Ending stocks for MY 2024/25 are forecast at 380 million bushels, 90 million bushels lower than last month’s forecast but 38 million bushels higher than the MY 2023/24 ending stocks. The seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month’s forecast.
The foreign oilseed production forecast for MY 2024/25 is reduced by 0.3 million metric tons this month, to 551.9 million metric tons on lower rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production in Russia and China. This decline is partially offset by higher sunflowerseed production in Russia and higher cottonseed production in China and Australia. The foreign oilseed crush forecast is increased on higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crush, which is partially offset by lower rapeseed crush.