Market Outlook

See the latest Corn and Other Feedgrains Outlook report.

2024/25 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks Are Reduced on Greater Use

The 2024/25 U.S. coarse grains supply forecast remains relatively unchanged this month at 447.5 million tons. Although China continues to exhibit weak demand for U.S. corn, alternative destinations are seen purchasing U.S. corn—which competes with Argentina as the cheapest in the global market. Observed census and export inspection shipments (plus outstanding sales to date) contribute to a 150-million-bushel increase in the 2024/25 U.S. corn export forecast. Moreover, elevated, but stable domestic gasoline demand continues from the prior year into the early part of 2024/25, along with strong foreign demand for U.S. ethanol. As such, the corn-for-ethanol-use forecast is raised 50 million bushels this month. A minimal change was made to the sorghum balance sheet (imports) this month, and prices remain at parity with corn at $4.10 per bushel.

With no changes to U.S. coarse grains production, reductions in foreign production lower global output prospects. Decreases in coarse grains production for the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Australia are partly offset by higher output for Ukraine, Canada, Australia, and China (oats). Global coarse grains consumption is expected to be higher, particularly with strong internal demand from Brazil. World coarse grains trade is marginally higher. Higher projected U.S. corn exports are partly offset by reduced corn exports from Brazil and the European Union. The lowered Australian barley projected output reduces world barley exports. Global coarse grains stocks are reduced.