See the latest Corn and Other Feedgrains Outlook report.
Global Coarse Grains Production Prospects Are Raised for 2024/25
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. coarse grains outlook is for a slight reduction in supplies, with greater declines in use—ultimately, lifting ending stocks by nearly 0.5 million tons. Based on recorded import volumes to date, the 2024/25 barley and oats import forecasts are lowered by 1 and 5 million bushels, respectively. Thus, offsetting changes to barley feed and residual and food, seed, and industrial use place downward pressure on ending stocks. The reduction in oats supply is expected to impact feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged.
Foreign 2024/25 coarse grains production is projected up this month, with gains expected across the complex. The largest increase is for corn production—particularly India. Complemented by higher corn production prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey—reductions for South Africa and Mexico are largely offset. Anticipated gains in 2024/25 barley production are driven by higher expected output in Australia, partly offset by reduced barley output in Argentina and Ukraine. Lower beginning stocks, stemming from back-year revisions to corn, partly offset coarse grains production gains. Regardless, these impacts are expected to spur domestic coarse grains consumption, reducing export volumes, and place downward pressure on 2024/25 ending stocks.