How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets

by Fred Gale, Jennifer Kee, and Joshua Huang

After moving from Europe to China in 2018, the African swine fever (ASF) virus spread throughout China in less than a year after the country’s first outbreaks were reported, dramatically reducing China’s pork supplies. This report investigates the impacts on China’s pork market that resulted from the virus and how China’s increased demand for imported pork affected markets for pork-exporting countries. China’s swine herd experienced a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery, as the country lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of its pork output. Pork prices in China more than doubled despite a surge of pork exports from the European Union, United States, Canada, Brazil, and other countries.

How to Cite:

Gale, F., Kee, J., & Huang, J. (2023). How China’s African swine fever outbreaks affected global pork markets (Report No. ERR-326). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://doi.org/10.32747/2023.8134360.ers

Keywords: pork, hogs, African swine fever, China, livestock disease, exports, imports, prices

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