Documentation

Documentation

Note: The model forecasts are not official USDA forecasts. See USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for official USDA season-average price forecasts. See the USDA, Farm Service Agency’s website for official USDA PLC payment rates.

Forecast Updates

The Excel files are updated monthly and posted 1 business day after the release of USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. See the ERS Calendar for the schedule of release dates.

Source Report

Users interested in wheat are encouraged to review the Merits of an Aggregate Futures Price Forecasting Model for the All Wheat U.S. Season-Average Farm Price report. This report provides information about the aggregate wheat futures price model, its data requirements, the forecast procedure, and forecast accuracy for the marketing years 2005/06 to 2019/20.

Users are strongly encouraged to read the Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn: An Application of the Futures Price Forecasting Model report which provides background information on the futures forecast model for corn, its data requirements, the forecast procedure, and forecast results for crop years 2003/04 and 2004/05.

Users interested in upland cotton are encouraged to read the Forecasting the U.S. Season-Average Farm Price of Upland Cotton: Derivation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model report. This report provides information about the cotton futures adjusted-price model, its structure, data requirements, forecast procedure, and forecast accuracy for marketing years 2008/09 to 2016/17.

Information on commodity programs in the 2014 Farm Act can be found in the Crop Commodity Program and Crop Insurance pages in Agricultural Act of 2014: Highlights and Implications.  Information on the 2018 Farm Act can be found at Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018: Highlights and Implications.

Model Components

Each spreadsheet model (corn, soybeans, wheat, and upland cotton) contains seven separate worksheets. The forecasts are provided on a marketing-year basis (September-August for corn and soybeans; June-May for wheat; and August-July for upland cotton).

  • The Contents sheet provides an explanation of each spreadsheet in the file.
  • The 2022/23 forecast worksheet provides: 
    • A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  For upland cotton, a weekly forecast of the season-average farm price is provided.  Users may change the weekly forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
    • A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
    • An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year
  • The 2021/22 forecast worksheet provides:
    • A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied price loss coverage (PLC) payment rate for corn, soybeans, and wheat. For upland cotton, a weekly forecast of the season-average farm price is provided.  Users may change the weekly forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
    • A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
    • An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
  • On the Change forecast worksheet, users can change the model's forecasts by inserting their own numbers for futures prices, monthly basis values, and/or monthly marketing weights.
  • The Definitions worksheet defines key terms associated with the futures forecast model.
  • The Documentation worksheet provides a brief description of the forecast model, data sources, and forecast procedures.
  • The Data worksheet provides current and historical data needed to produce the marketing-year forecasts:
    • Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by marketing year,
    • Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year,
    • Monthly basis values by marketing year,
    • Monthly marketing weights by marketing year,
    • Monthly season-average-price-received projections from WASDE, and
    • Policy parameters (target prices, national average loan rates, and direct payment rates, counter-cyclical payment trigger prices, and reference prices).

Additional Documentation

Additional documentation of the models and data can be found on the Documentation tab of each commodity spreadsheet.

Recommended Citation

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Season-Average Price Forecasts.

Related Research

Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average U.S. Corn Price (a paper presented at the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in St. Louis, MO, April 19-20, 2004) provides the theoretical background and forecast accuracy of the futures price model.

Forecast Performance of WASDE Price Projections for U.S. Corn This 2015 article also explains the futures-adjusted season-average price forecast model for corn along with typical forecast performance statistics such as root mean squared error (RMSE). Any statistical differences between futures-adjusted forecasts and WASDE projections for corn's SAP are also reported.