U.S. long-term projections show beef imports set to retreat from their recent highs as domestic beef production climbs

U.S. beef production and trade are closely linked, and changes in production typically have a contrasting effect on the pattern of U.S. beef imports. Beef production tends to follow a cycle of 8 to 12 years driven by cattle producers’ response to price fluctuations and pasture conditions. In 2022, U.S. beef production reached a peak of 28.4 billion pounds. Production is projected to hit a low of 24.8 billion pounds in 2027 before climbing through 2034, the final year of USDA’s Agricultural Baseline projections. As domestic beef production falls, import volumes are expected to increase, peaking in 2025 at 4.4 billion pounds. Imports are expected to begin a steep decline, reaching a 10-year low in 2029 of 3.0 billion pounds, as production climbs to better meet domestic beef demand. U.S. beef export volumes typically are more stable than imports, although exports do tend to follow the same general direction as domestic production. U.S. beef exports are projected to gradually rise starting in 2027 and continue to grow through 2030 before leveling off for the rest of the projection period. This chart is drawn from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034, published in February 2025.