(Selected research findings from FY 23)
China’s emergence as a major meat producer, consumer, and importer may have potential to expand export opportunities for the United States and other producers
China has become the world’s largest meat importer, as growth in its own production has diminished. Growth in China’s meat production and consumption has slowed due to decelerating population and income growth, animal disease, scarcity of land for feed and forage, rising production costs, and health concerns. Has China’s consumption of meat reached a ceiling, or is there room for more growth? This report investigates trends in China’s meat supply and household purchases, discusses data inconsistences, analyzes population, income, and price data that influence consumption, and estimates statistical models to ascertain future growth in China’s meat consumption.
Trade agreements change Japan’s markets for U.S. pork and beef
Japan has ratified trade agreements with the United States, European Union (EU), United Kingdom (UK), and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries. Pork exports to Japan are estimated to increase as a result of these trade agreements, with the United States having the highest estimated gains. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project model, this report estimates that Japan's pork imports could increase between 3.6 and 13.9 percent by 2028 (compared to 2018 levels) due to its global trade agreements. These increased imports could also reduce Japan’s pork production between 4.2 and 11.8 percent and increase U.S. pork exports to Japan by $281 million.
ERS researchers estimate that in Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY) 2028/2029, Japanese beef production will be 11.7 percent lower and imports will be 17.2 percent higher than 2018 levels
Japan and its major beef trading partners recently entered into four trade agreements (TAs), including the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (Japan-EU EPA), and the Japan-UK Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Japan-UK EPA). These agreements reduce, in annual steps, the tariff rates that Japan applies to beef and beef product imports and include safeguards, which are temporary import restrictions that apply an increased tariff rate to any volume of imports over a specified trigger level. This study estimates the impact of these TAs on Japan’s beef market when the tariff reduction process will be halfway and fully implemented—in JFY 2028/29, which runs from April 1, 2028, to March 31, 2029, and JFY 2033/34—utilizing four scenarios with different assumptions for the safeguards.
Mexico’s share of U.S. agricultural imports from Latin America and the Caribbean increased from 44.1 percent during 2007–09 to 58.2 percent during 2019–21
This report uses detailed trade statistics to explore the changes in U.S. agricultural imports from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) between 2007-09 and 2019-2021. The Economic Research Service found that between this time period, total U.S. agricultural imports increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6 percent in nominal terms. Five products led the growth in U.S. imports of consumer-oriented agricultural products from LAC: fresh berries, tequila, fresh avocados, beef and beef products, and beer with Mexico being the leading foreign supplier of these products.
Fresh strawberry and blueberry imports to the United States increased significantly from 2000 to 2020
Strawberries and blueberries are the most popular berries in the United States by value and volume. Since 2000, the demand for strawberries and blueberries in the United States has increased. In response, both domestic production and imports have also increased substantially. Fresh strawberry imports increased significantly in the last two decades, particularly from Mexico. Fresh strawberries imported from Mexico reached a record high of 431 million pounds in 2020. While Mexican strawberries have an almost year-round presence in the U.S. market, approximately 85 percent of Mexico’s U.S.-bound shipments enter the market during winter and spring months.
African Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows averaged 3 percent of the global total between 2014 and 2018
African countries have begun trading in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)—which will be among the largest free trade areas in the world when fully operational. AfCFTA may present significant opportunities for increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. While Northern and Southern Africa historically have been important sub-regions for FDI inflows, Eastern and Western Africa recently saw increasing FDI.
Between 1999-2019, the real value of Africa's external agricultural imports grew by 7.4 percent
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) began operating on January 1, 2021, and when fully implemented will be among the largest free trade areas in the world. This free trade area could influence African agricultural trade as growth in member economies could increase the demand for agricultural products—offering expanding opportunities for agriculture and agribusiness growth in the region. Africa continues to rely heavily on agricultural imports and high urban population growth rates suggest that these trends of growth in agricultural imports could continue.
The United Kingdom (UK) left the European Union (EU) in 2020, which led to changes in the UK’s agricultural production and trade policy
Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU, fundamentally changed the relationship between the UK and EU, leading to divergences in agricultural and trade policies. Post-Brexit, the UK’s devolved approach to agricultural policy, after nearly a half-century of participation in the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), means that each national administration (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales) is responsible for its own agricultural policy framework and any ramifications for changes in agricultural production. This report found that at the national level, differences in agricultural policy development (Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales) and/or implementation (England) range from continuation to the phasing out of EU-style programs and payment.
United States continues to be the top exporter of corn, tree nuts, and cotton
This report provides information about challenges and opportunities in these five crop markets, as well as a commodity-specific analysis of U.S. export competitiveness. Export shares and exports-to-production ratios indicate the United States continues to be the top exporter of corn, tree nuts, and cotton, while other competitors have penetrated the global wheat and soybean markets. Over the last decade, the United States lost its position in the global wheat market as the European Union (EU), Russia, and Ukraine gained market shares. Similarly, Brazil and Argentina continue to pose a challenge to U.S. soybean exports.
Total U.S. animal product exports reached over $36 billion in 2021, representing more than 18 percent of U.S. agricultural trade
The United States is a leading global competitor in the four major animal agricultural commodity markets analyzed in this study: beef, pork, chicken, and dairy. While the United States remains a top competitor in the trade of animal products, the global market is shifting to create opportunities and threats to U.S. competitiveness. Total U.S. animal product exports reached over $36 billion in 2021, representing more than 18 percent of U.S. agricultural trade. U.S. competitiveness is strong in East Asian, Southeast Asian, and North American markets, supported by multilateral trade agreements and strong exports despite pandemic disruptions to domestic industries.
Total global demand for gasoline is expected to stagnate over the next decade
Ethanol manufacturers use about 40 percent of the U.S. corn crop for ethanol and related co-products, with the majority of the ethanol being consumed in the domestic transportation fuel market. This report makes projections under a “Historical Blends” (HB) scenario, where countries continue to blend ethanol at historical rates, and a “Targeted Blends” (TB) scenario, where countries fully meet stated ethanol blending targets or mandates.
ERS researchers examine changes in the magnitude and composition of greenfield foreign direct investments in Africa coinciding with the pandemic
This COVID-19 Working Paper evaluates how the pandemic may have shifted trends in greenfield foreign direct investments (GFDI) in the region. Africa is expected to be a key emerging market for international trade and investment due to rising consumer incomes and a population that is projected to double in size by 2050. However, the pandemic led to major disruptions to markets and incomes in Africa that may have altered companies’ investment decisions. Annual investments made by foreign firms to start a new venture or subsidiary, or greenfield foreign direct investments (GFDI), in Africa declined by 60 percent in 2020 relative to the 10-year annual average.