FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT, GFA-11

by Stacey Rosen and Shahla Shapouri

Broad trends in food production and prices indicate a decline in the share of people who do not have access to adequate food levels. However, the overall figures mask variation in food security among regions, countries, and income groups within countries. In 1999, per capita food consumption in 67 low-income countries is projected to fall short of 1996-98 levels ("status quo") by nearly 13 million tons, about 2 million tons more than estimated for 1998. Around 400,000 tons of the increase arose from adding a new country, North Korea, to the analysis this year. The gap between actual consumption and minimum nutritional requirements is expected to be even larger at 15 million tons. During the next decade, food gaps with respect to the status quo and nutritional targets are expected to widen further. Food consumption is projected to fall short of the nutritional requirement in 30 countries, while 45 countries are expected to face a decline in per capita consumption in 2009. The 67 countries in the study either have been or may become food aid recipients. The projections, however, exclude the availability of food aid. Therefore, depending upon future food aid availability, some or all of the projected food gaps can be eliminated.

Keywords: global food security, low-income developing countries, food aid, North Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean

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