Agricultural Baseline Database
The USDA, Economic Research Service's (ERS) Agricultural Baseline Database webpages provide multiple resources enabling users to navigate the 10-year agricultural projections, which are developed by the USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. The domestic and international commodity trade projections are the focus of the Agricultural Baseline Database webpages. The most recent agricultural baseline projection data can be downloaded via zip file (February 14, 2024 Release.zip)*. An expanded set of international projections are the focus of the International Baseline Data webpages.
The annually updated projections are first made available in the early-release tables (released in November) for selected domestic commodity and macroeconomic data, and published in the more comprehensive USDA Agricultural Projections report the following February. In addition to supply and demand projections for major U.S. farm commodities, the report provides additional projections for U.S. farm income and U.S. agricultural trade, as well as projections for global agricultural trade.
Visualization: U.S. Agricultural Baseline Projections and Custom Queries provide projection information for major U.S. field crop commodities (barley, corn, oats, rice, sorghum, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, upland cotton, and wheat) and livestock commodities (beef, chicken, dairy, egg, pork, and turkey). The visualization tool uses projection data from the most recent early-release tables, in combination with historic data, while the custom queries tool allows users to access data from the most recent and/or historic projections.
The Agricultural Baseline Projections Topic Page provides information regarding the baseline and a listing of baseline-related products.
- U.S. Agricultural Projections: Cornell University's Mann Library website houses zip files containing historic and the most recent USDA Agricultural Projection reports, along with accompanying tables.
- Baseline Questions & Answers: compiled answers to common questions regarding the baseline projections.
The U.S. Agricultural Baseline Database also provides a Documentation page that includes information on the scope/coverage of the data, methods used to create projections, the strength and limitations of the projections, related resources, and a recommended citation for the projections.
*Note: The most recent projections are based on conditions as they existed upon the release of the October 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.